109
FXUS65 KPSR 032353
AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
453 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026
.UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm temperatures will be seen today and Wednesday
with highs reaching around 15 degrees above normal.
- Breezy northeasterly to easterly winds are expected Wednesday
and Thursday with wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph across the
lower deserts and upwards of 35 to 45 mph across the higher
terrain.
- Above normal temperatures and overall dry weather should prevail
through the weekend before a pattern change next week brings
much cooler temperatures and precipitation chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A Rex block has set up over the eastern Pacific and far western
CONUS. The low pressure is set up just west of the Baja with the
high centered over coastal north-central CA. The high has
strengthened today as this Rex block set up, with H5 heights rising
to around 584 dm early this afternoon, and H5 heights around 580 dm
over AZ. The high is expected to continue to strengthen heading into
tomorrow, maximizing around 585-586 dm, and around 581-583 dm over
AZ. After the slight cool down from yesterday and with the
strengthening high, temperatures will warm back up a few degrees.
Afternoon high temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to low
80s across the lower deserts. With the high continuing to strengthen
tomorrow, further warming is expected. Temperatures tomorrow will
warm into the low-to-mid 80s. In fact, the NBM is forecasting a high
of 84 degrees in Phoenix, which is 2 degrees shy of the record set
just last year. The latest NBM gives Phoenix a 50% chance of at
least tying the record and a 30% chance of breaking it.
In addition to the high pressure strengthening, the low pressure
will also be strengthening which will cause a tightening pressure
gradient and increased winds to our region. Winds will be out of the
NE/E all day and the downsloping easterly winds could help to drive
temperatures up a degree or two. Winds will gust upwards of 20 to 30
mph across the lower deserts with higher speeds up around 30 to 40
mph across the higher terrain, with highest gusts across the peaks.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
The cut-off low to our southwest should begin to move toward our
region later Wednesday before opening up and moving in on
Thursday. An upstream Pacific trough will also help to eject the
ridge to the east starting Thursday. This shift will quickly lower
heights across the Desert Southwest while also adding some high
cloudiness from southwest to northeast on Thursday. However, the
warm air mass in place will be hard to dislodge as daytime highs
are only expected to dip back into the upper 70s starting
Thursday.
Model guidance shows broad upper level troughing remaining over
the region through Friday with decent potential of the upstream
Pacific trough and the former cut-off low merging into a new cut-
off low or at least a closed low somewhere near or over our region
this weekend. Guidance is still heavily favoring a continuation
of the dry pattern despite the potential of the cut-off low.
However, some members show the low strengthening enough this
weekend to actually pull some meaningful moisture northward
resulting in some rain chances by late Sunday. Although this does
seem like a possibility, chances are still quite low for any rain
chances this weekend or even into early next week. Models are
still trying showing another one or two upstream Pacific troughs
moving toward or even into our region at some point next week, but
the timing keeps getting pushed back. The latest shows any decent
rain chances now mostly pushed back until the middle of next week.
Until this happens temperatures will remain above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2350Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies are expected
through the forecast period. Winds will follow typical diurnal
trends through tonight with easterly flow becoming established
between 03Z-05Z. Winds will then become more elevated after
sunrise Wednesday morning up to around 10-11 kts, with gusts
between 15-20 kts possible through mid-afternoon. East winds will
prevail through the latter half of the period.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns are expected throughout the TAF
period. At KIPL, light westerly winds are anticipated overnight
before transitioning to N-NE by Wednesday afternoon. At KBLH,
light NW winds will become more elevated out of the NE around the
same time Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions will persist
through midweek. MinRHs will mostly be between 10-15% today and
tomorrow. Overnight recoveries will remain poor to fair,
generally in a 35-55% range. Winds will begin to increase today
across southeast California and the Arizona higher terrain before
becoming breezy areawide starting Wednesday. Gusty easterly winds
to as high as 25-35 mph will be possible across the eastern
districts for Wednesday and 35-45 mph Thursday. The western
districts will see more of a north northeasterly component with
gusts around 25-30 mph. Improving humidities and lighter winds
are expected Friday into the weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...Phoenix, AZ Daily Record High Temperatures.
2/3 86 (2025)
2/4 86 (2025)
2/5 87 (1963)
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict
NWS Phoenix Office
Tucson, AZ 
