876
FXUS65 KPSR 262005
AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
105 PM MST Sun Oct 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and tranquil weather will prevail throughout the week with
temperatures near to slightly above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
A strong zonal jet core was punching into the northern California
coast and Great Basin early this afternoon placing the forecast area
under a warming, subsident regime. This SW Conus quasi-zonal flow
pattern will persist over the next 48 hours with H5 heights
increasing from near 582dm closer to a 585-588dm range. A tendency
towards amplified ridging will materialize towards the middle of the
week as northern stream shortwave energy digs into the SE Conus in
response to growing western hemisphere blocking. This common autumn
pattern will assure a continuation of dry, tranquil weather; and
excellent model agreement yields very high forecast confidence of
temperatures hovering a few degrees above the daily normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
During the middle of this week, subtropical ridging will start to
push into Arizona causing H5 heights to rise to around 588-590 dm,
which in turn will lead to warming temperatures. Afternoon high
temperatures will likely be in the low to mid 90s across the lower
deserts and in the low to mid 80s across the higher terrain through
Thursday. Models show H5 heights maxing out on Wednesday, making
Wednesday forecast to be the hottest day of the week. These midweek
temperatures are forecasted to be around 5-8 degrees above normal,
but 4-5 degrees shy of record levels. By the end of the week, models
show a weak shortwave trough moving into our region. This weak
shortwave looks to lower heights aloft with H5 heights falling to
around 582-585 dm resulting in a slight cooling trend of a couple
degrees. Temperatures are forecasted to fall back into the mid to
upper 80s to near 90 across the lower deserts and in the low to mid
80s across the higher terrain to end the workweek and continue
through the weekend. Forecast confidence does start to go down next
weekend as the GEFS shows high pressure trying to build back in
which would result in warming temperatures. Either way, dry
conditions look to continue for at least the next 10 days.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 1705Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major weather issues will exist through Monday afternoon as
scattered high cirrus decks gradually clear. Behavior of wind shifts
will be similar to the past several days with prolonged periods of
nearly calm conditions common during these transitions. Wind speeds
will be slightly enhanced across SE California terminal versus the
past several days.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will remain largely unchanged today and tomorrow with a
slight warming trend during the middle of the week. Temperatures
then look to cool a few degrees by the end of the workweek and
heading into next weekend. Either way temperatures look to be 4-8
degrees above normal through the week, maxing out on Wednesday.
MinRHs today and tomorrow will be around 20% for the lower deserts
to around 25% over the higher terrain areas. Then on Tuesday through
the remainder of the week, minRHs fall to 10-15% for the lower
deserts to around 20% for the higher terrain areas. Winds over the
next week will generally follow their typical diurnal tendencies
with limited afternoon upslope gustiness.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich
NWS Phoenix Office
Tucson, AZ 
