Tucson, AZ 
470 FXUS65 KTWC 032121 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 221 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions will continue into the upcoming weekend, with high temperature 4 to 8 degrees above normal. Strong and gusty easterly winds are expected Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...Ridging with above normal temperatures continues to influence our weather today with rather benign conditions under clear skies as high level clouds remain to our south across Mexico. While ridging will still be dominant aloft on Wednesday into Thursday (though an upper level low nudges closer towards northern Baja Thursday), our focus will be on surface high pressure building down the front range of the Rockies. This high pressure will result in gusty easterly winds developing Wednesday and continuing Thursday. Expect sustained easterly winds in many locales of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. The highest gusts will mostly be found in the areas most susceptible to easterly winds such as in mountain gap areas and along mountain ridges. High temperatures Wednesday will be similar to today from Tucson westward with about 5 degrees of cooling east of Tucson. A few degrees of additional cooling will occur Thursday from Tucson westward with not much change from Wednesday in eastern areas. By later Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, there will be an increase of mid and high level clouds out ahead of that low which will open up to our west. There isn`t much lift to work with and sub- cloud layers are dry but wouldn`t be surprised to see virga or even some sprinkles in a few spots especially Thursday night. For Friday and through the weekend we`ll be watching the evolution of another upper low off the California coast and its eventual progression east and southeast. Some semblance of weak ridging out ahead of this system should result in dry weather Friday and Saturday with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Slight chance PoPs (10 to 20 percent) get introduced Sunday east of Tucson as the upper low may bring in a bit more moisture for those areas. A more significant pattern change will occur next week as the ensembles are in good agreement that a longwave trough will move into the western US with a transition towards cooler weather with precipitation chances. Still enough uncertainty for 10 to 20 percent PoPs Monday into Tuesday but the latest trends indicate the bulk of this system will be more into the middle to later portions of next week. Above normal temperatures this weekend will trend closer to seasonal normals by next Tuesday before additional cooling occurs later next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z. SKC-SCT clouds thru 04/06Z, then SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the end of the valid period. SFC wind 12 kts or less thru the forecast period. SFC winds 12 kts or less mainly NWLY thru NELY direction between thru 04/06Z and ELY/SELY direction between 04/06Z and 04/12Z. ELY/SELY winds then increase and become 14-22 kts with gusts 30-35 kts especially for KTUS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 4 to 8 degrees above normal through the weekend with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday east of Tucson where highs will be near normal. A strong easterly wind episode is expected Wednesday into Thursday, with sustained 20-ft wind speeds of 20-25 mph and gusts to 35-45 mph in locations exposed to east winds. Min RH levels at all elevation will be in the 12-22 percent range through Wednesday, increasing into the 18-30 percent range (higher in the Sky Islands) Thursday into next week. A change in the weather pattern is expected Sunday into next week, with a slight chance of precipitation and a transition to cooler temperatures especially as next week progresses. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
