690
FXUS65 KTWC 030832
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
132 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions are expected across southeast Arizona
this week. High temperatures will be below normal through the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A benign weather pattern for this week across
southeast Arizona. In the near term, shortwave ridging aloft
continues to build into the region from the west. Still considerable
moisture levels at the immediate surface and this may lead to some
patchy fog this morning in the normally susceptible locations east
of Tucson such as the Sulphur Springs Valley. Any fog will quickly
burn off this morning with abundant sunshine thereafter for the
entire forecast area and daytime highs about 5 to 8 degrees below
normal.

A couple of weak systems will pass well to our north Wednesday and
Thursday with dry westerly flow dominating our weather with just
some high clouds from time to time. Thereafter, the flow pattern
becomes more dominated by broad baggy troughing Friday into the
weekend over our forecast area. There are some differences in the
exact evolution of this pattern in the ensembles by Sunday/Monday
with the GEFS showing more established troughing to our southwest
along the Baja peninsula while the EPS/GEPS are much more muted with
any troughing. Will maintain dry forecast through this period as
temperatures remain about 5 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 04/12Z.
Mainly SKC conditions thru the forecast period. Can`t rule out
patchy fog thru 03/15Z for KOLS/KDUG but confidence too low to
include in TAFs. SFC wind 12 kts or less at most locations thru the
forecast period, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the late
afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other
times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected across southeast
Arizona this week. High temperatures will be below normal and 20-
foot winds will be less than 15 mph through the upcoming weekend.
Minimum RH values in the valleys will be in the 35-50 percent this
week (and higher in the mountains).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rainfall from Friday into early Monday led to
rises on most rivers and creeks across southeast Arizona. While most
levels are slowly receding, there continues to be a couple of areas
of concern. Those include: 1) the Vamori Wash in central Pima
County, 2) the Santa Cruz River and Greene Wash in northern Pima
County/southern Pinal County, and 3) the Gila River at Solomon.
Flood Warnings and/or Flood Advisories are currently in effect for
those areas. Additionally, we will continue to monitor for
additional rises today in the Gila River in Greenlee County as
higher flows work their way downstream from New Mexico.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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