714
FXUS65 KTWC 211925 CCA
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1226 PM MST Sat Mar 21 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A historic March heat wave will continue through the
weekend, with record high temperatures. Visitors and people not
typically accustomed to extreme heat are urged to take precautions
during the hottest hours of the day and to limit outdoor activities.
While high temperatures lower several degrees next week, highs will
still be 15 to 20 degrees above normal and daily record high
readings are expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure aloft will remain centered over
the state today and then begin to weaken and shift southeast into
northern Mexico on Sunday. High temperatures will remain hot,
especially for March, and an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect
through 8 PM MST Sunday. High temperatures will be 20-25 degrees
above normal through Sunday, with record high temperatures expected
across southeast Arizona.
The ridge will flatten early next week, as a series of storm systems
move across the northern tier of states. However, well above normal
heights/thicknesses persist across the desert southwest. Highs will
lower several degrees, but will still be 15-20 degrees above normal.
Daily record high temperatures are likely each day through the end
of next week.
The models show the upper ridge becoming highly amplified late next
week into next weekend across the western United States. This will
allow for some mid level moisture to move into the area from the
east/southeast. At this time, there are slight chance POPs in the
Saturday time frame across far eastern areas of southeast Arizona.
High temperatures are still around 15 degrees above normal.
The CPC 8-14 day outlooks are:
Temperatures: Likely above normal (69-72%)
Precipitation: Leaning above normal (40-53%)
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 23/00Z.
Clear skies thru 22/02Z, then increasing high level cirrus clouds
and SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL aft 22/06Z persisting thru the
remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind WLY/NWLY at 8-13 kts with
some gusts up to 20 kts thru 22/02Z and then again aft 22/19Z, and
SFC wind less than 10 kts and variable in direction at other times.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...An unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure will
result in record setting high temperatures this weekend, with high
temperatures 20-25 degrees above normal. High temperatures will
lower several degrees next week, but highs will still top out 15-20
degrees above normal. Very dry conditions will continue through next
week, with minimum RH values at all elevations generally in the 5-12
percent range. 20-foot winds will generally be 10-15 mph with some
afternoon gusts to 20-25 mph through Wednesday of next week, except
on Sunday to the east of Tucson where winds will be 15-20 mph with
gusts to around 25 mph.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ501>509.
&&
$$
Zell
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NWS Tucson (TWC) Office
Tucson, AZ 
