963
FXUS65 KTWC 060917
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
217 AM MST Wed May 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect mild temperatures today with highs nearly 10 degrees
below normal. Winds will be much lighter as well. A warming
trend is expected through the remainder of the week with well
above normal temperatures expected by the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Cyclonic flow persists over southeastern Arizona today in the
aftermath of the Pacific trough crossing yesterday. A shortwave
circulation that cut off from the main trough will sit over
northern Baja to northern Sonora today, keeping temperatures
mild over southeastern Arizona. Forecast highs today are nearly
10 degrees below normal, while winds will be much lighter than
yesterday (mainly under 12 mph with a few afternoon gusts).
While the aforementioned upper level circulation lingers for a
few days the main upper level pattern across the western CONUS
will feature a building ridge, which will quickly be the
dominant weather feature by way of increasing temperatures.
Highs are expected to climb to 6-10 degrees above normal this
weekend and will likely further heat up early next week.
Ensemble guidance favors the positive ridge anomalies peaking
Monday-Tuesday, with some flattening of the ridge through the
middle of next week. This ridge peak will bring desert highs
from 95 to over 100 degrees, with probabilities of exceeding
100 degrees at the Tucson airport 25 percent Sunday, 75 percent
Monday, and 60 percent Tuesday (with greater probabilities
within town).
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 07/12Z.
SKC through the forecast period with surface winds generally
under 12 kts. Wind direction west-northwest 06/19Z to 02/20Z,
otherwise terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Below normal temperatures again today with far lighter winds
than Tuesday. Winds this afternoon west-northwest and mainly
under 12 mph, otherwise terrain driven this morning and tonight.
Minimum relative humidities mainly above 15 percent across
desert locations and above 20 percent in the mountains. Further
drying is expected through the week as temperatures heat up as
well. Winds remain generally light each day with minimum
relative humidities falling into the single digits and below 15
percent in the mountains by the weekend.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Edwards
AVIATION...Edwards
FIRE WEATHER...Edwards
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