577
FXUS65 KFGZ 060933
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
233 AM MST Wed May 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Look for a few showers or thunderstorms today across
the northeast corner of the state. Fair and much warmer weather
moves in on Thursday and continues into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The main energy from our most recent shortwave
trough has headed to the southeast. However, another weak
shortwave will brush the Four Corners area today with a
continuation of isolated showers and thunderstorms across the
northeast corner of Arizona. After that, high pressure builds over
the the southwest United State ushering in dry conditions and
much warm temperatures.
For Today...Lingering moisture will interact with a fast moving
shortwave trough brushing the Four Corners. We`re not expecting
much from this feature which has grown even weaker than previously
indicated. As a result, any activity will remain isolated, mainly
in the form of showers before Noon but with daytime heating, just
enough instability for a stray thunderstorm during the afternoon.
With the main trough axis stretching across southeast Arizona,
pressure gradients will favor north to northwest winds, 10-20 mph
south of the Mogollon Rim but 10-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph from
the Mogollon Rim northward enhanced by the shortwave brushing the
Four Corners. A milder air mass will move in behind the trough
axis with high temperature jumping up by around 10 degrees
compared to Tuesday.
From Thursday through early next week...High pressure will
dominate the weather across northern Arizona. Look for dry
conditions through Sunday. For Monday and early next week models
show the ridge axis shifting east of Arizona with a more southerly
flow developing. This may open the door to a slight increase in
moisture and the potential for high based showers and
thunderstorms, something we will be keeping an eye on. Otherwise,
look for temperatures to get much warmer with daytime highs
ranging 10-15 degrees above average by Friday and lasting into
next week. Typical afternoon spring breezes, tending from the
northwest at 5-15 mph on Thursday and Friday and from the
southwest from Saturday onward as the ridge axis gradually slips
eastward.
&&
.AVIATION...Wednesday 06/06Z through Thursday 07/06Z...ISOLD -SHRA
will dissipate from west to east for the rest of this evening. Most
activity ending by 08Z. All locations VFR by later tonight and into
Wednesday. Most sfc winds less than 5-15kts overnight. Daytime sfc
winds W-NW10-20kts on Wednesday.
OUTLOOK...Thursday 07/06Z through Saturday 09/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. ISOLD -SHRA near the Four Corners through 03Z Thursday.
Daytime sfc winds N-NE5-15kts Thursday and W-NW10-20kts Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Showers and thunderstorm
chances become confined to the northeastern corner of the state
Wednesday, mainly north and east of the Mogollon Rim. Rainfall
amounts will generally be light with a wetting rain not expected.
Things dry out and begin to warm up on Thursday. Winds becoming NW
10-20 mph on Wednesday, NW 5-10 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values
15-30% Wednesday, dropping to 9-15% Thursday.
Friday through Sunday...Expect dry and much warmer weather with high
temperatures rising to 10-15 degrees above average. Winds generally
NW 5-15 mph on Friday, SW-W 10-20 mph gusting to 25 mph on Saturday,
NW-N 5-15 mph on Sunday. Minimum RH values 8-15% Friday and
Saturday, 6-13% Sunday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
