936
FXUS65 KFGZ 032320
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will continue through most of the
week before slight chances for some mountain showers arrive Friday
and into the weekend. Gusty northeast winds are expected through
Thursday with Wednesday being the windiest day of the week. More
chances for showers are expected next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...High pressure will be the dominant feature across
northern Arizona through Thursday. Look for little change in
high/low temperatures under just a few high level cirrus. A weak
shortwave trough was brushing Arizona Tuesday afternoon but will
head rapidly eastward overnight. Sinking motion behind the trough
will strengthen surface high pressure over the Colorado Plateau
which in turn will strengthen surface pressure gradients. The
result will be the development of locally gusty northeast winds
which will linger into Thursday, especially from the Mogollon Rim
southward. The strongest winds will be on Wednesday when north to
northeast at 10 to 20 mph with local gusts to 30 mph are expected.
On Friday and over the weekend...A weak and complicated troughing
pattern will develop over Arizona. Overall, dynamically induced
upward forcing with this trough will be weak. However, enhanced
moisture and colder mid-level air associated with the low will
combine with daytime heating to produce slight chances for
afternoon and evening showers over the mountains. Nothing
significant anticipated here with snow levels 7500 to 8500
and any heavier shower activity spotty at best.
From Monday onward...It is looking like a more active pattern will
develop over the western States as the polar low over Canada and
the persistent longwave trough across the eastern United States
breaks down. The door will likely open to unsettled and cooler
conditions with a good chance of mountain snow and lower elevation
rain at times. We`ll have to get closer in time to pin down
timing, amounts and snow levels.
&&
.AVIATION...Wednesday 04/00Z through Thursday 05/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Winds generally N-E 10-20kts and mainly in the daytime.
However, locations along and just SW of higher terrain may see gusts
as high as 25-30kts Wednesday afternoon. ENE drainage winds 10-20kts
just SW of higher terrain again tonight, which includes terminal
KSEZ.
OUTLOOK...Thursday 05/00Z through Saturday 07/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions, isolated -SHRA on Friday, mainly W and NW of terminal
KFLG. Winds mainly light, but ENE drainage winds 15-25kts just SW of
higher terrain again Wednesday night, which includes terminal KSEZ.
Drainage winds decrease after Wednesday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry with daytime
temperatures 10-15 degrees above average. Winds NE 10-20 mph
Wednesday, E-NE 5-10 mph on Thursday. Minimum afternoon 15-25% each
day.
Friday through Sunday...Look for a slight chance of showers each day
over the high terrain but no wetting rain is expected. Daytime high
temperatures each day remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages.
Winds S-SW 5-10 mph on Friday, light and variable under 10 mph on
Saturday and Sunday. Minimum afternoon RH values 20-35% on Friday
and Saturday, 20-30% Sunday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
