494
FXUS65 KFGZ 041738
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1038 AM MST Tue Aug 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will stick around due to a
strong area of high pressure across much of the Southwest. Daily
chances for showers/storms will remain as well, primarily focused
across the higher terrain. Heat products remain in place for lower
elevation locations through at least Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong area of high pressure remains over the
region, bringing daytime highs 5-15 degrees above normal and
isolated showers/storms. This synoptic pattern looks to mostly
stay in place through the forecast period, but beginning as early
as Wednesday, the high looks to push northward, which would allow
for an increase in moisture across our CWA. Before diving more
into what`s to come this week/weekend, let`s discuss the heat and
precipitation chances for today (Tuesday). An Extreme Heat Warning
remains in place for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and
Glen/Marble Canyons, plus a Heat Advisory is in effect for much of
northeastern AZ. Both the U of A WRF and the SPC HREF suggest
pretty minimal convective activity this afternoon, but a few stray
showers/storms are possible.

The Extreme Heat Warning for the Grand Canyon and Glen/Marble
Canyons goes through Wednesday evening, but there is still
potential for this to be extended. Hot temperatures don`t look to
go away anytime soon, but with the projected movement of the area
of high pressure, precipitation chances could limit how warm
temperatures get. Regardless, daytime highs will land 5-15 degrees
above normal through the end of the week and into the weekend, so
stay hydrated and try to limit activity during the hottest part of
the day. Outside of the heat, shower and thunderstorm coverage
looks to expand westward rather than being solely focused across
the Rim and White Mountains for Wednesday and Thursday. Storms
will be capable of producing localized heavy rain, small hail,
frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic winds.

Model guidance doesn`t suggest the strong area of high pressure
moving out anytime soon, so continue to expect hot daytime highs
and isolated to scattered chances for precipitation for the
foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 04/18Z through Wednesday 05/18Z...Expect mainly
VFR conditions. Dust from this morning should dissipate soon. SCT
SHRA/TSRA possible from 19Z-03Z. Most storms along or to the east of
a KFLG-KPAN line. Brief and localized MVFR/IFR possible in storms.
Sfc winds outside of storms SW-W10-20kts in the daytime.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 05/18Z through Friday 07/18Z...Expect primarily
VFR conditions. SCT SHRA/TSRA possible from 19Z-03Z each day. Storms
most likely over the higher terrain of central and eastern Arizona
and moving to the SW and W each day. Sfc winds outside of storms
generally light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Above normal temperatures
forecast to continue, along with daily chances for showers/storms.
Precipitation chances looks to be focused across the higher terrain
each afternoon/early evening. Westerly winds 10-20 mph expected each
afternoon, with light/terrain driven winds overnight. Minimum RH
values between 5-15% along and north of the Little Colorado River
Valley, with 20-40% elsewhere.

Thursday through Saturday...Daytime highs 5-15 degrees above normal
will persist through the weekend, along with daily chances for
showers/storms. Coverage will primarily remain focused across the
higher terrain. Look for westerly winds 5-15 mph each afternoon,
becoming light/terrain driven during the overnight periods. Minimum
RH values between 5-15% along and north of the Little Colorado River
Valley, with 20-40% elsewhere.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Wednesday for
AZZ005-006.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ009-010-012>014-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS Flagstaff Office