187
FXUS65 KFGZ 122306
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
406 PM MST Sat Jul 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Expect hot temperatures to continue into early next
week. Moisture will be sparse, with only isolated or scattered
activity through Monday. A gradual uptick in moisture is forecast
during the course of next week, with a potential for very wet
conditions by the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Just enough moisture this afternoon, mainly under a
weak cap at 480mb, has allowed for limited shower development. There
has even been a few lightning strikes, mostly around the White Mtns.
Steering flow is driving this activity southward, where a few more
pop up showers may develop into the evening, as there is better
moisture south of the Mogollon Rim. The air mass to the north is
very dry and additional development is not likely.
High pressure over the northern Baja will make one final push
northward on Sunday, bringing another very warm and mostly dry day.
The overall pattern on Sunday will be similar to today, not very
much, but not nothing.
After that, the ridge begins to get a bit diffuse and slowly shift
eastward into next week, in response to s/wv energy moving through
the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. This will initiate some
cooling in the mid-levels early next week as the high relocates.
Additionally, mid-level flow will turn easterly and northeasterly.
This will start to allow outflows from SE AZ/SW NM to work moisture
back west and north, along with boundary layer flow continuing over
the Gulf of California. We expect a slow ramp up of shower activity
as a result, today and Sunday will be the quietest days.
By the middle of next week, a favorable high position and an
easterly wave will bring a more organized moisture transport into
the state, along with synoptic lift. The high PoPs from Wednesday
onward look good.
&&
.AVIATION...Sunday 13/00Z through Monday 14/00Z...VFR conditions,
mostly clear and dry overnight, chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns to the higher terrain between 13/18Z and
14/03Z. Smoke and haze from wildfires burning on the Kaibab
Plateau could be present north of Interstate 40. Winds light and
variable or terrain driven overnight, W-NW 10-15kts, gusts 20kts
during the day. Gusty and erratic winds near showers or storms.
OUTLOOK...Monday 14/00Z through Wednesday 16/00Z...VFR conditions,
chance of showers and thunderstorms between 18Z and 03Z each
afternoon area wide. Smoke and haze from wildfires could be
present north of Interstate 40. Winds W-NW 10-15kts, gusts
20-25kts during the day, light and variable or terrain driven
overnight. Winds could be gusty and erratic near thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Monday...Hot and mostly dry
through Sunday, with a slight increase in shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday. West through northwest afternoon winds at 10-15 mph
with gusts up to 20 mph. Minimum RH of 5-10% is forecast north of
the Mogollon Rim, 10-20% along and south of the Rim each day. Low
chances (10-30%) for showers and thunderstorms are forecast along
the higher terrain from Flagstaff south and east today and Sunday,
increasing to 30-50% Monday.
Tuesday through Thursday...Slowly increasing moisture and
thunderstorm chances with a slight cooling trend. The best chances
for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday will be over the
higher terrain along and south of the I-40 corridor, spreading north
to include most of northern Arizona by Thursday. Minimum RH values
will be between 10-20% Tuesday increasing to 15-30% by Thursday.
Winds mainly west at 10-15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds can be
expected near storms.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ006.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
