535
FXUS65 KFGZ 262142
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
242 PM MST Sun Oct 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions expected through the week. Seasonably
warm temperatures persist tomorrow, before northeasterly flow
late-Monday through Wednesday will lead to a cooling trend for
areas along/north of the Mogollon Rim. Temperatures return to
above normal by late week as high pressure builds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Breezy conditions with southwest gusts near 30 mph
are being observed this afternoon as a trough passes to the north
of the state. Localized areas of elevated winds overnight,
particularly downwind of terrain features. By tomorrow, the
trough axis pushes east and lighter winds will accompany slightly
above normal daytime temperatures.
Ensemble guidance is in agreement for flow to turn north/northeast
late Monday-Wendesday, leading to a cooling trend along/north of the
Mogollon rim. There is some disagreement on the magnitude of this
cooling, and the NBM is on the colder side of ensemble guidance. The
current forecast calls for about a 5-10 degree drop in the high
temperature from Monday to Tuesday for areas north of the Mogollon
Rim. Areas south of the Rim will see a much smaller temperature
difference. Temperatures are forecast to recover to near/above
average by Thursday and continue to warm as a ridge builds through
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Sunday 26/18Z through Monday 27/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds southwest 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts through around 02Z.
Locally gusty southwest winds will continue overnight downwind of
terrain features.
OUTLOOK...Monday 27/18Z through Wednesday 29/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds west to northwest at 5-15 kts on Monday, becoming north to
northeast 10-15 kts on Tuesday - with gusts up to 25 kts along and
downwind of terrain features including at KFLG. Locally gusty
northeast winds will persist downwind of terrain features during
overnight hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Tuesday...Dry with mild
temperatures. Breezy southwest winds 10-20 mph early this evening,
then localized southwest breezes continuing overnight downwind of
terrain features. West to northwest winds 5-15 mph Monday, shifting
to northeasterly 10-20 mph late Monday night through Tuesday.
Afternoon minimum RH 15-25% Monday, 10-20% Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday...Dry and mild. North to northeast winds
5-15 mph Wednesday, light and variable Thursday, then west to
northwest 5-15 mph Friday. Afternoon minimum RH generally in the
teens.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
